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Transp Policy (Oxf) ; 130: 15-25, 2023 Jan.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2082730

ABSTRACT

The COVID-19 pandemic spread rapidly in 2020 and led to full or partial lockdowns worldwide. The restrictions led to most economies contracting in the April-June quarter of 2020. As per the IMF World Economic Outlook of June 2020, the global economy was expected to contract by 4.9% in 2020, whereas the Indian economy was expected to contract by 4.5%, affecting a population of more than 1.3 billion. This led to disruption in the global supply chain network, adversely hitting all modes of transport, including ports and multimodal logistics. Based on the survey results of 98 respondents in the Indian ports, multimodal logistics and transport ("PMT") sector conducted during the lockdown in May-June 2020, an adverse impact on profitability, employment, operations and capital expenditure was identified, which is consistent with observations from previous economic crises. Additionally, we have estimated the financial impact on different categories of organisations in the industry. Based on these impacts, this study identified key factors required to support the sector and build resilience for the future through technology interventions, developing multimodal transport systems, and providing financial support and employment support for small and medium enterprises (SMEs). By providing an analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on the different categories of organisations based on data collected during and shortly after the lockdown, the study makes a novel contribution to understanding the impact of such crises on the PMT industry at a granular level and the aggregate-level impacts with guidance for policy and managers and in particular, in an emerging economy context.

2.
Commun Med (Lond) ; 2: 75, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1915297

ABSTRACT

Background: During the first wave of COVID-19, hospital and intensive care unit beds got overwhelmed in Italy leading to an increased death burden. Based on data from Italian regions, we disentangled the impact of various factors contributing to the bottleneck situation of healthcare facilities, not well addressed in classical SEIR-like models. A particular emphasis was set on the undetected fraction (dark figure), on the dynamically changing hospital capacity, and on different testing, contact tracing, quarantine strategies. Methods: We first estimated the dark figure for different Italian regions. Using parameter estimates from literature and, alternatively, with parameters derived from a fit to the initial phase of COVID-19 spread, the model was optimized to fit data (infected, hospitalized, ICU, dead) published by the Italian Civil Protection. Results: We show that testing influenced the infection dynamics by isolation of newly detected cases and subsequent interruption of infection chains. The time-varying reproduction number (R t) in high testing regions decreased to <1 earlier compared to the low testing regions. While an early test and isolate (TI) scenario resulted in up to ~31% peak reduction of hospital occupancy, the late TI scenario resulted in an overwhelmed healthcare system. Conclusions: An early TI strategy would have decreased the overall hospital usage drastically and, hence, death toll (∼34% reduction in Lombardia) and could have mitigated the lack of healthcare facilities in the course of the pandemic, but it would not have kept the hospitalization amount within the pre-pandemic hospital limit.

3.
Commun Med (Lond) ; 1(1): 4, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1555629

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: In early March 2020, a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in the ski resort Ischgl in Austria initiated the spread of SARS-CoV-2 throughout Austria and Northern Europe. METHODS: Between April 21st and 27th 2020, a cross-sectional epidemiologic study targeting the full population of Ischgl (n = 1867), of which 79% could be included (n = 1473, incl. 214 children), was performed. For each individual, the study involved a SARS-CoV-2 PCR, antibody testing and structured questionnaires. A mathematical model was used to help understand the influence of the determined seroprevalence on virus transmission. RESULTS: The seroprevalence was 42.4% (95% confidence interval (CI) 39.8-44.7). Individuals under 18 showed a significantly lower seroprevalence of 27.1% (95% CI 21.3-33.6) than adults (45%; 95% CI 42.2-47.7; OR of 0.455, 95% CI 0.356-0.682, p < 0.001). Of the seropositive individuals, 83.7% had not been diagnosed to have had SARS-CoV-2 infection previously. The clinical course was generally mild. Over the previous two months, two COVID-19-related deaths had been recorded, corresponding to an infection fatality rate of 0.25% (95% CI 0.03-0.91). Only 8 (0.5 %) individuals were newly diagnosed to be infected with SARS-CoV-2 during this study. CONCLUSIONS: Ischgl was hit early and hard by SARS-CoV-2 leading to a high local seroprevalence of 42.4%, which was lower in individuals below the age of 18 than in adults. Mathematical modeling suggests that a drastic decline of newly infected individuals in Ischgl by the end of April occurred due to the dual impact from the non-pharmacological interventions and a high immunization of the Ischgl population.

4.
BMC Med ; 19(1): 32, 2021 01 28.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1052413

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: SARS-CoV-2 has induced a worldwide pandemic and subsequent non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to control the spread of the virus. As in many countries, the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Germany has led to a consecutive roll-out of different NPIs. As these NPIs have (largely unknown) adverse effects, targeting them precisely and monitoring their effectiveness are essential. We developed a compartmental infection dynamics model with specific features of SARS-CoV-2 that allows daily estimation of a time-varying reproduction number and published this information openly since the beginning of April 2020. Here, we present the transmission dynamics in Germany over time to understand the effect of NPIs and allow adaptive forecasts of the epidemic progression. METHODS: We used a data-driven estimation of the evolution of the reproduction number for viral spreading in Germany as well as in all its federal states using our model. Using parameter estimates from literature and, alternatively, with parameters derived from a fit to the initial phase of COVID-19 spread in different regions of Italy, the model was optimized to fit data from the Robert Koch Institute. RESULTS: The time-varying reproduction number (Rt) in Germany decreased to <1 in early April 2020, 2-3 weeks after the implementation of NPIs. Partial release of NPIs both nationally and on federal state level correlated with moderate increases in Rt until August 2020. Implications of state-specific Rt on other states and on national level are characterized. Retrospective evaluation of the model shows excellent agreement with the data and usage of inpatient facilities well within the healthcare limit. While short-term predictions may work for a few weeks, long-term projections are complicated by unpredictable structural changes. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated fraction of immunized population by August 2020 warns of a renewed outbreak upon release of measures. A low detection rate prolongs the delay reaching a low case incidence number upon release, showing the importance of an effective testing-quarantine strategy. We show that real-time monitoring of transmission dynamics is important to evaluate the extent of the outbreak, short-term projections for the burden on the healthcare system, and their response to policy changes.


Subject(s)
Basic Reproduction Number , COVID-19/epidemiology , Pandemics , COVID-19/transmission , Germany/epidemiology , Humans , Italy/epidemiology , Models, Statistical , Retrospective Studies
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